Key Weekly Data Points – week commencing 11/05/2020

Daniel Casali provides a round-up of key market activity during the week of 11th May.

Monday 11th

• The Northern Ireland economy will shrink by 7.5% this year as a result of coronavirus, according to a Danske Bank economist. This is relatively optimistic compared to some other forecasts, such as the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre which forecasted a contraction of up to 10%.
• PM Boris Johnson has set Britain on the first tentative steps to “reopening society” with a three-month road map out of lockdown.

Tuesday 12th

• A report by London Business School assessing the real time data from a wide survey of banks, suggests that household spending dropped more than 40% in April. This would indicate a deeper downturn than BoE had predicted.
• Recapitalisation Group, set up at the request of the Bank of England, has said that small and medium-sized businesses will be stuck with up to £105 billion of unsustainable debt within ten months because of the Coronavirus pandemic.

Wednesday 13th

• According to the ONS, UK gross domestic product fell by 5.8% in March compared with the previous month, the fastest monthly pace on record and the largest drop since the monthly series began in 1997.
• India has announced a 20 trillion rupee ($264bn; £216bn) economic package to help the country handle its coronavirus lockdown measures. The package is equal to roughly 10% of India’s GDP.

Thursday 14th

• Self-employed workers applied for £340m in merely 4 hours after the UK Treasury’s newest coronavirus bailout program was opened.
• Despite the government allowing the housing market to reopen this week, experts are predicting a 13% fall in UK property as the market struggles.
• A report from the UN has suggested four years of global growth will be cancelled and there is likely to be a 3.2% drop in global growth in 2020 alone. It also suggested that a possible 130m people could be pushed into poverty by 2030.
• Italy approved a €55 billion package designed to bolster liquidity for businesses and help struggling families. It includes up to €4bn worth of tax cuts, extra funding for businesses and emergency income measures. However, Bloomberg Economies have suggested that the package is €65 billion short.

Friday 15th

• The fiscal watchdog, the Office for Budget Responsibility has cautioned that the UK’s economic rescue packages will give the country’s public finances a £300 billion hit.
• The ONS have suggested that nearly half of all businesses do not have six months of cash reserves.
• Another 3m American filed for jobless claims this week. The total, since lockdowns began, now stands at 36m.

Source: Bloomberg.com

Risk warning
Investment does involve risk. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up. The investor may not receive back, in total, the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. Rates of tax are those prevailing at the time and are subject to change without notice. Clients should always seek appropriate advice from their financial adviser before committing funds for investment. When investments are made in overseas securities, movements in exchange rates may have an effect on the value of that investment. The effect may be favourable or unfavourable.

DISCLAIMER
By necessity, this briefing can only provide a short overview and it is essential to seek professional advice before applying the contents of this article. This briefing does not constitute advice nor a recommendation relating to the acquisition or disposal of investments. While considerable care was taken to ensure the information contained within this article was accurate and up to date at the time of publication, no warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of the information.  No liability is accepted for any errors or omissions in such information, or any action or inaction taken on the basis of this publication.
Please remember investment involves risk. The value of investments and the income from them can fall as well as rise and investors may not receive back the original amount invested. Past performance is not a guide to future performance.
 
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